Nicolas Jackson transfer to Aston Villa or Tottenham? Why striker from Chelsea could yet prove to be underrated

During his time at Chelsea, Nicolas Jackson earned an unwanted reputation as an unusually unreliable finisher. He missed a lot of clear chances. But does that mean other top clubs are making a mistake in turning to the Senegalese striker? Not necessarily.

The words of Brentford owner Matthew Benham when speaking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference earlier this year feel particularly relevant here. "For a striker, getting in position is way more informative than finishing," Benham explained.

"There is an awful amount of randomness in finishing. For example, if you show me two players at a similar level and they both scored 15 goals last season but one of them had twice the number of chances, I want the guy who had twice the number of chances."

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Benham, whose analytical background has underpinned Brentford's overperformance, offered the example of Beto at Everton but these principles also apply to Jackson. "The fact that he is getting in position for the shot, that is really important for us," he added.

When it comes to finding the positions that result in shots, it is no exaggeration to state that there are few better at it than the much-maligned Jackson. Indeed, there is some statistical evidence that puts him among the absolute elite at getting chances to score.

Since the start of the decade, factoring in everyone who has played at least 5,000 Premier League minutes, and excluding penalties, there is only Erling Haaland with a higher expected-goals figure per 90 minutes than Jackson. He is a chance magnet.

Although Jackson reached double figures for Premier League goals in both of his seasons as a Chelsea player, the problem was putting those chances away. He was able to convert only 18 of his 61 - sixty-one - big chances as a Premier League player.

It was a return that compared unfavourably to the best finishers in the competition and eventually convinced Chelsea to look elsewhere. Jackson's season on loan at Bayern Munich saw some of the patterns repeat. He continued to get into excellent positions.

Impact at Bayern Munich

In fact, his goal return was impressive enough for Bayern. He scored 11 goals in all competitions but was starved of minutes, starting only 15 matches. In terms of goals from open play in the Bundesliga, only Harry Kane had a better record per 90 minutes.

Perhaps that is not such a surprise given Bayern's utter dominance in Germany but the marginal difference between the eventual winner of the European Golden Shoe and Jackson is interesting. Kane averaged 0.79 open-play goals per 90 to Jackson's 0.72.

Criticism still follows him but Bayern coach Vincent Kompany is an admirer. "I have to say that I have noticed since I have been here that when everything is going well in the team, there are attempts to single out a player or two without any reason," he said.

"The guy has not done anything wrong, he trained extremely well, he won the AFCON, but there are always stories about a player or two." He added: "When Harry Kane plays in your position, or Michael Olise, or Luis Díaz, it is a bit difficult. There is nothing more."

Kompany knows that Jackson did his job and he did it well. Towards the end of the season, when Bayern's focus switched to Europe, he scored in three consecutive Bundesliga games. Speaking to Sky, Bayern legend Lothar Matthaus laid it all out.

"Kompany is convinced of Jackson's abilities and would have liked to keep him in Munich. But he is too expensive. Kompany has made it clear internally that he would like to keep Jackson, but obviously at a certain price that Chelsea might not accept."

Relationship with Emery

For Aston Villa, who have just received a British record transfer fee of £117m from Chelsea for Morgan Rogers, the circumstances are different. And Unai Emery has good reason to believe that he could coax more than anyone else from this particular player.

It was working with Emery at Villarreal that opened up these career opportunities for Jackson. And there is no need to take anyone else's word for that. Speaking to Sky Sports about this, Jackson was emphatic. "Unai taught me everything about football."

He added: "When I was from Senegal, I knew how to play but I did not understand how to run on the pitch. I was just running like crazy, taking the ball and just dribbling, making my own stuff. He changed all that and made me into a different kind of player."

It was Jackson who scored the final goal of Emery's highly successful reign at Villarreal. He netted the late winner at home to Almeria on what was an emotional occasion for the club following the passing of their popular vice-president José Manuel Llaneza.

What were Emery's farewell words about Jackson in the press conference afterwards before his move to Villa was confirmed? "He has to evolve so that his work for the team can be transformed into effectiveness." Clearly, that evolution is not yet complete.

But Jackson only turned 25 years old last month. For comparison, Ollie Watkins has already turned 30. Tammy Abraham, who spent time on loan at Villa last season, is 28. There is more to come. Lots to work with. And every reason to believe that Emery can help.

(c) Sky Sports 2026: Nicolas Jackson transfer to Aston Villa or Tottenham? Why striker from Chelsea could yet prove to be underrated