F1 championship permutations: How Lando Norris can win maiden title at Qatar Grand Prix and impact of McLaren disqualifications in Las Vegas

Lando Norris can still seal the 2025 F1 Drivers' Championship this weekend at the Qatar Grand Prix despite shock disqualifications for himself and McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri in Las Vegas, but what is the world title situation now?

How Norris can win the championship

Prior to the exclusions for excessive skid block wear, Norris had increased his championship lead to 30 points but both McLarens losing their results in Las Vegas means his advantage over Piastri is back to how it was at the start of the weekend, 24 points.

However, more importantly, Norris is also now 24 points in front of Max Verstappen who dominated the Las Vegas race.

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A maximum of 58 points are available from the last two rounds in Qatar, which is a Sprint weekend, and Abu Dhabi.

Norris cannot win the title in the Qatar Sprint this Saturday at 2pm UK time, but the British driver will be world champion if he is at least 26 points ahead of Piastri and Verstappen after Sunday's race, which takes place at 4pm.

The mathematics are simple for Norris - outscore his title rivals by two points over the weekend and he will become Britain's 11th F1 world champion.

One of several scenarios Norris could do this is by finishing in the top six of the Sprint and winning the Grand Prix.

What are Piastri and Verstappen's chances now?

But, a poor weekend for Norris could see the title picture change very quickly and it is possible Piastri or Verstappen could even take the championship lead after Qatar.

To stay in the title fight, both drivers must be 25 points, or less, behind Norris, who has finished ahead of Piastri in the last seven races - a run the Australian must reverse.

Neither driver can realistically afford a slip-up with McLaren's Las Vegas disqualifications having given Verstappen a massive championship boost.

Verstappen ruled himself out of title contention in Brazil earlier this month but surely fancies his chances of at least giving Norris a serious headache, given the McLaren driver has never been in this pressure position in F1.

"We always try to just maximise everything that we've got," said Verstappen before the McLaren exclusions.

"Las Vegas, that was first and the upcoming weekends we'll again try to win the race. And at the end of Abu Dhabi, we'll see where we end up."

On paper, the Qatar and Abu Dhabi tracks play into the hands of McLaren but Verstappen has had race-winning pace at five of the last seven races.

Momentum is on his side and he could produce what would surely be the greatest comeback in F1 history, having been 104 points behind after the Dutch Grand Prix in late August.

Will McLaren favour Norris?

McLaren have consistently stated they will support both drivers' championship ambitions until they are mathematically out of the title hunt.

Earlier this month, McLaren chief executive Zak Brown said he would rather lose the championship to Verstappen than favour one of his drivers.

Brown referenced the 2007 F1 season when McLaren pair Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso narrowly lost out to Kimi Raikkonen in the drivers' championship, with the team not backing one driver.

Raikkonen was 17 points, which is 42 points using today's points system, behind then championship leader Hamilton with two rounds to go yet still overturned the deficit.

"That's not how we go racing. If 2007 happens again, I'd rather have that outcome than any other that involves playing favourites - we won't do it," said Brown.

Given Piastri is within a race win of Norris, surely McLaren will stand by their principles despite the now serious Verstappen threat.

And the Woking-based team cannot afford to ask Piastri to play a back-up role in case Norris has a poor result on Sunday in Qatar.

Team principal Andrea Stella has previously stated: "We are not going to close the door unless this is closed by mathematics."

Will McLaren be more cautious after disqualifications?

This is the big immediate question. McLaren are investigating the reasons behind their excessive skid block wear breach in Las Vegas to ensure they do not repeat the same offence in Qatar.

In October's United States Grand Prix, both McLarens did not complete more than one corner in the Sprint after Piastri ran into Norris.

It is understood this loss of gathering data and learnings from the Sprint meant McLaren ran the car higher than optimal, so lost performance in a race Verstappen comfortably won.

The Qatar and Abu Dhabi tracks are relatively smooth compared to Las Vegas, so porpoising - bouncing at high speed - should not be an issue and McLaren will be less susceptible to overwearing the skid blocks.

We are talking millimetres though and even a tiny built-in margin of extra ride height from McLaren could be the difference between Norris or Piastri winning or losing out to Verstappen in a title race which is turning into a thriller.

F1's season-ending triple header continues with the Qatar Grand Prix Sprint weekend live on Sky Sports F1 from Friday. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime

(c) Sky Sports 2025: F1 championship permutations: How Lando Norris can win maiden title at Qatar Grand Prix and impact of McLaren disqualifications in Las Vegas