UK weather: Autumn more likely to be wetter than average, with greater risk of floods

The UK will experience a greater risk of flooding and a wetter autumn than average, the Met Office has said.  

A warm and wet meteorological autumn is around one-and-a-half to two times more likely compared to what would normally be expected, according to forecasters.

There is also an increased chance of windy conditions later in the season, with strong El Nino conditions in the Pacific putting the UK at greater risk of a wet, stormy autumn.

The El Nino phenomenon takes place when sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise above average, which can have a knock-on effect on weather in Europe.

One of the strongest El Nino events is expected to develop, with the current phenomenon already at near-record levels.

These events are typically associated with warmer, wetter and stormier conditions across the UK during late autumn and early winter.

This is largely consistent with the most recent seasonal outlook, the Met Office confirmed.

Its chief meteorologist, Ian Lisk, said: "The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Nino events.

"However, El Nino is only one of several factors affecting the UK's weather, and it does not determine exactly what conditions we will experience. While this event may become one of the strongest El Nino events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK.

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"We will continue to monitor developments closely and update our forecasts as confidence in the outlook evolves."

Environment Agency officials recently said that almost three-quarters of England remains in drought despite recent downpours.

The body also raised concerns over a number of reservoirs at very low levels.

(c) Sky News 2026: UK weather: Autumn more likely to be wetter than average, with greater risk of floods