Erling Haaland projected to smash Alan Shearer's record with 389 Premier League goals - Between the Lines

Erling Haaland is on course to shatter Premier League scoring records after his sensational start to the season continued with his winning goal against Brentford on Sunday.

Jamie Carragher described Haaland as English football's "greatest goalscorer" after the game. The player himself said he is in the form of his life. "I've never felt better than I do now," he told Sky Sports.

So, is Haaland getting even better? His numbers make a compelling case. The Norway striker has 18 goals in 11 games for club and country this season, taking him to 37 for the calendar year.

With up to 22 games to play before the end of December, he is projected to finish the year on a career-high total of 57, beating his previous highest total of 50 as he scales new heights.

He has already made history in the Champions League.

With his goal his in 49th appearance in the competition against Napoli, Haaland became the quickest player to reach 50 Champions League goals, smashing the record held by Ruud van Nistelrooy, who needed 62 games, with Lionel Messi next on 66.

For further context, Cristiano Ronaldo, the Champions League's leading scorer with 140 goals, took 91 games to reach a half-century.

Haaland has of course been similarly prolific in the Premier League.

His goal against Brentford took him to 94 in 104 appearances, giving him an unprecedented strike rate which puts him close to becoming the quickest player in the competition's history to join the 100-club ahead of Alan Shearer, who needed 125 games.

Harry Kane, Sergio Aguero, Thierry Henry and Mohamed Salah are the next-fastest players behind Shearer to reach the milestone, all of them trailing in Haaland's wake.

Haaland's astonishing scoring rate makes him an outlier and, with nine years still to run on the extraordinary contract he signed in January, and having only turned 25 in July, he is on course to break just about every Premier League scoring record.

If he continues scoring at the same rate, and factoring his average playing time, Haaland is projected to beat Shearer's record of 260 Premier League goals in September 2030.

Should he stay at the Etihad Stadium for the duration of his contract, until 2034, the same projection suggests he will reach a staggering total of 389 Premier League goals.

Why he's better than ever

Haaland cited off-field factors when asked about his stunning start to the campaign in his interview with Sky Sports on Sunday, highlighting the significance of becoming a father last year.

"It's about preparation and getting ready for the games. You can be physically ready, but you need to be mentally ready as well.

"Having a kid makes me even better because it makes me disconnect more than ever. I don't think of football at all."

There are, however, important tactical factors at play too.

Pep Guardiola has made adjustments to Manchester City's approach this season. Their capacity to dominate possession remains, but the manager has put more emphasis on counters and direct play, as explained in a previous edition of Between the Lines.

Haaland is getting more opportunities to attack space as a result of the changes, an area in which few players are more dangerous.

Opta's advanced metrics show he has already scored twice from fast breaks in the Premier League this season, having only done so once in the whole of the last campaign. He only needs two more shots from fast breaks this term to equal his previous total. His numbers for shot and goal-ending carries are also up.

His goal at the Gtech Community Stadium on Sunday, when he bulldozed past Sepp van den Berg after latching onto a pass from centre-back Josko Gvardiol, was just the latest of example of his devastating effectiveness from direct attacks following his fast-break goals against Wolves and Arsenal.

"He is in the best moment," said Guardiola after the game. "The treble we won, he scored 50 million goals, but he's part of the club now, he's settled. He feels like 'it's mine' now.'"

More than a goalscorer?

Carragher said he sees a difference between great "goalscorers" and great players when he made his claim about Haaland. But as well as finding the net at an even higher rate, Haaland, once criticised for doing little else, is finding other ways to contribute.

"He is more involved in the game, not just the finishing, the work ethic and pressing," added Guardiola on Sunday.

A comparison of Haaland's heat maps for the last three seasons shows an increase in activity in his own half. Haaland is dropping deep in possession, getting more touches of the ball generally, and also showing a greater appetite to muck in defensively.

Guardiola mentioned his pressing but Haaland is also vital defending set-pieces having registered more first contacts this season than any of his Manchester City team-mates, with six.

It all adds up to make Haaland a more complete striker.

But there is no doubting his goals are what set him apart.

Already English football's greatest goalscorer? Quite possibly. And the scary thing is Haaland's best is yet to come.

Read last week's Between the Lines

We took an in-depth look at Liverpool's issues this season, including set-piece problems, new signings struggling and a Mohamed Salah drop-off which continued as they lost again against Chelsea.

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