What do we know about the number of people killed in Iran protests?

Thousands of people have been killed in Iran's deadly protests, but deaths are still being verified, with conflicting reports. Here's what we know.

Estimates from human rights organisations and doctors, independent of the Iranian regime's official figures, range from over 5,000 at the conservative end to 33,000 by one count, and even as high as 50,000, according to one unverified claim.

Iranian authorities imposed a near-total internet blackout, which has only partially lifted, from 8 to 27 January. As a result, it has been near-impossible to verify the true number of people who have been killed in the brutal crackdown.

Nicholas Hopton, former UK ambassador to Iran from 2016 to 2018, told Sky News that Iranian authorities were limiting information on the number of people killed.

"It is becoming increasingly clear since the internet coverage has been partially restored in the last week, that many thousands, possibly tens of thousands of innocent people, were killed during the crackdown by the Islamic regime," he said.

The Iranian Islamic Republic previously said 3,117 people have been killed, claiming the majority of these deaths were security forces and civilians, not protesters. But this number has been questioned by doctors, diplomats and human rights organisations.

"One should view any statistics being given by the Iranian authorities with a big dose of scepticism," Mr Hopton added.

The UN's special rapporteur on Iran, Mai Soto, has said at least 5,000 people have been killed at a "minimum" - substantially more than the authorities' claims.

Human rights agencies also warn the numbers are much higher. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has independently verified 6,540 deaths so far, with a further 17,091 cases under review, bringing the possible total up to over 23,500.

It said just 214 deaths verified so far have been government-affiliated, such as security forces, while the majority, 6,148, have been protesters, 123 were under 18 and 55 were civilians.

Doctors claim tens of thousands have been killed

Meanwhile, two doctors have told Sky News they believe tens of thousands of people have been killed.

Germany-based eye surgeon Dr Amir-Mobarez Parasta claimed major hospitals and clinics inside Iran have seen over 25,000 clinically recorded deaths as of 23 January.

Dr Parasta is a supporter of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former shah of Iran, who lives in the US and is a prominent voice encouraging protests against the regime.

He said he had collected the figures from a network of doctors and medical professionals across Iran, and claimed they had been verified by at least two individuals in each hospital or clinic where the data was from.

Sky News has not seen the clinical reports he cited and is unable to independently verify the figure.

Dr Yaser Rahmani-Rad, a specialist in internal medicine at a Tehran hospital who was previously arrested in 2023 for treating protesters, also believes the number of people killed is in the tens of thousands. Some doctors have been arrested for treating protesters during this bout of unrest, Sky News previously reported.

High number of deaths recorded in capital

Of the deaths Dr Parasta claims have been clinically recorded, a third (8,354) were in Tehran alone. As the nation's capital and largest city, Tehran was a hotbed of protest activity and is widely considered to be the location of the first protests on 28 December.

Nearly 900 protests were identified between 28 December and 13 January, through research from Sky News and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Dr Parasta's report estimates that with a lack of data from areas across Iran and around 15% of deaths likely being underreported at this stage, the true number of people who have died is likely higher - at least 33,130.

Former UN prosecutor and human rights lawyer Payam Akhavan told Sky News he believes that estimate is credible, though Dr Parasta said he considers his figure to be "conservative".

"Our ongoing data collection shows a continued and significant rise in hospital-reported deaths, reflecting both the sustained intensity of the violence and the severe strain on an already overwhelmed healthcare system," he said.

The son of the former shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, has said the figure could be as high as 50,000 dead, without providing evidence to support the claim.

A 'massacre' amid internet blackouts

On 8 January, observed protest activity reached its peak and the internet blackout began. Now, reports from doctors suggest the days which followed were the deadliest for protesters.

"The concentration and scale of fatalities during this period compel us to speak of a massacre-level event," Dr Parasta told Sky News.

Sky News has verified footage from several locations around Iran during this period, which appears to show security forces opening fire on protesters.

One picture posted on social media shows a machine gun mounted on top of a military vehicle in Tehran.

Mr Hopton, the former ambassador, said 8 and 9 January were particularly fatal.

Dr Rahmani-Rad, who is based in Tehran, said: "What happened in Iran over those two days is something the world has never seen with its own eyes.

"I still cannot believe that something like this actually happened. I still haven't fully accepted it."

Putting the numbers into perspective

Defining the number of those killed in previous protests in Iran is similarly contentious, with competing narratives from authorities and human rights organisations.

During the Iranian Revolution in 1979 - previously believed to be the most violent in Iran's history - it is estimated between 532 and 2,781 people died, according to military historian Spencer C Tucker, who has written several books on revolutions and the Middle East.

The Iranian regime has put this figure much higher, at 60,000 deaths, which Mr Tucker claims is "grossly overstated […] for propaganda purposes".

Former ambassador Mr Hopton said: "Already, a lot more people have been killed in these protests than at any time since the 1979 revolution. But we just don't know the statistics yet."

Human rights organisations said at least 550 people died in protests following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, while Iranian authorities claimed the figure was lower at 202.

Yet the scale of fatalities in the latest protests is, by the authorities' own admission, undoubtedly larger than in 2022 - leading Dr Rahmani-Rad to call the brutality "unprecedented in history".

"The only thing I can do is hope that the world becomes aware of what happened in Iran, that people around the world understand exactly what took place," he told Sky News.

Sky News has approached the Iranian embassy for confirmation of the number of people killed, but received no response.

The Data x Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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